The US economy added 311,000 jobs in February, according to the Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment snapshot released Friday, outpacing expectations of 205,000.[0] The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 3.6%, surpassing the prediction of 3.4%, while the labor force participation rate also rose to its highest point since March 2020 at 62.5%.[1] The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ survey of households revealed a 177,000 decrease in their computation of the unemployment rate.[2] The unemployment rate, including those who are discouraged and those who are working part-time for economic reasons, went up 0.2 percentage points to 6.8%.[2]
Major industries experienced an increase in payroll of 105,000, with leisure and hospitality in the lead.[3] In February, both information and transportation/warehousing industries experienced a decrease.[4] Hourly wages increased by 0.2 percent in February, resulting in a 4.6-percent annual increase. This was lower than what was expected.[5]
Analysts at Commerzbank are bullish on the US labor market and expect another solid jobs report.[6] Economists on Wall Street anticipate the jobs report for February will demonstrate that employers added 220,000 positions.[7] January’s numbers had been distorted upward by seasonal adjustments and other statistical quirks, but the report showed that the economy added 504,000 jobs in January, a total that was revised down only slightly from the initially reported 517,000.[8]
In January, the labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% from 62.4%, with more people employed or looking for work.[9]
It is expected that the jobs report will enable the Federal Reserve to continue with its plan to raise interest rates at its meeting on March 21-22.[2] Traders estimated that there was only a 48.4% chance, or approximately a 50-50 chance, that the central bank will make a 0.5 percentage point increase, according to a CME Group estimate.[2] By the end of 2022, with inflation data appearing to have cooled off, markets predicted that the Fed would moderate its rate hikes.[10] In February, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise interest rates by 0.25%, and stated that further increases would be gradual.[10]
0. “Friday’s Jobs Report Is In. What It Means for the Fed.” Barron’s, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.barrons.com/articles/february-jobs-report-today-39762ac
1. “Gold price gains as U.S. jobs number beats expectations in February, but unemployment rate climbs” Kitco NEWS, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-03-10/Gold-price-gains-as-U-S-jobs-report-beats-expectations-in-February-but-January-number-revised-down.html
2. “Payrolls rose 311,000 in February, more than expected, showing solid growth” CNBC, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/jobs-report-february-2023.html
3. “US hiring boom continued in February with 311,000 added jobs” The Guardian, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/10/us-jobs-report-february-2023
4. “The US added 311,000 jobs in February, unemployment rate at 3.6%” Business Insider, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.businessinsider.com/job-growth-unemployment-rate-recession-outlook-february-jobs-report-2023-3
5. “Jobs report: US economy adds 311,000 jobs in February as labor market stays strong” Yahoo Money, 10 Mar. 2023, https://money.yahoo.com/february-jobs-report-march-10-2023-124602371.html
6. “Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 311,000 in February vs. 205,000 expected” FXStreet, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-nonfarm-payrolls-forecast-analyzing-february-nfp-release-202303100700
7. “Why Friday’s Jobs Report Won’t Save The S&P 500 From Fed Hawks” Investor’s Business Daily, 9 Mar. 2023, https://www.investors.com/news/economy/why-a-soft-jobs-report-wont-save-the-sp-500-from-fed-hawks/
8. “Robust job growth exceeded expectations again in February” MSNBC, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/robust-job-growth-exceeded-expectations-february-rcna74324
9. “US Jobs Report: Gold finger stretches higher on intraday charts as NFP data comes out mixed” FXStreet, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-jobs-report-preview-gold-to-continue-februarys-decline-202303100720
10. “US economy added 311,000 jobs in February, exceeding expectations” NBC News, 10 Mar. 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/payrolls-rose-311000-february-expected-jobs-growth-stays-hot-rcna74329