Australia will release its January employment data early on Thursday, February 16th at 00:30 GMT.[0] Economists and researchers from six major banks have forecasted the upcoming employment data, expecting the country to have added about 20,000 new job positions, with the Unemployment Rate and Participation Rate remaining steady at 3.5% and 66.6% respectively. Alongside monthly employment numbers, the February Consumer Inflation Expectations report will also be published at 5.6%.[1]
The previous three-month period saw unemployment rate at 3.7%, 0.1% higher than the three-month period, while the Employment Rate was at 75.6%, 0.2% higher than the previous three-month period.[2] Average earnings excluding bonus saw an increase of 6.7% 3moy, above expectation of 6.5%. Average earnings including bonus increased by 5.9% 3moy, which is lower than the expected growth of 6.2%.
The participation rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 66.5 per cent in January, as per Australian Bureau of Statistics jobs data.[2] This could be a sign of underlying weakness in the employment sector, as Australia’s economy cools this year.[3] Unemployment rate climbed to 3.7% in January from 3.5%, and employers cut 11,500 roles from the prior month, compared with economists’ estimate for a 20,000 gain.[4]
The UK payrolled employees rose 0.3% mom or 102k in January from December, and compared to the same month a year ago, payrolled employees rose 2.6% yoy or 768k.[5] Median monthly pay rose 6.8% yoy, while claimant count dropped -12.9k, versus expectation of 9k rise.[6]
The AUD/USD pair traders will need to look out for the job statistics from Australia, as the exchange rate tests the 50-Day SMA (0.6883) for the second time this month.[7] A rebound in Australia Employment may spur a bullish reaction in AUD/USD, while a decline in the job market may put pressure on the AUD.[7]
We expect the January labour-market data to show a slight rebound in employment of 15K from the dip observed in December, which would mean that the underlying employment recovery momentum has continued.[8] Unemployment and Participation Rates are likely to match those in December, with an increase in the number of hours worked.
0. “When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect AUD/USD?” FXStreet, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/when-is-the-australian-employment-report-and-how-could-it-affect-aud-usd-202302152335
1. “Australian Employment Preview: Better figures in the docket, doubtful impact on RBA” FXStreet, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/australian-employment-preview-better-figures-in-the-docket-doubtful-impact-on-rba-202302151424
2. “Jobless rate unexpectedly jumps to 3.7 per cent” The Queenslander, 16 Feb. 2023, https://theqldr.com.au/economy-business-and-finance/2023/02/16/economy-225/
3. “Australian jobs market cools further in Jan, unemployment grows By Investing.com” Investing.com, 16 Feb. 2023, https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/australian-jobs-market-cools-further-in-jan-unemployment-grows-3004899
4. “Australian Unemployment Unexpectedly Jumps to 3.7%, Yields Drop” Bloomberg, 16 Feb. 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-16/australian-unemployment-unexpectedly-jumps-to-3-7-yields-drop
5. “UK January payrolls change 102k vs 28k prior” ForexLive, 14 Feb. 2023, https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-january-payrolls-change-102k-vs-28k-prior-20230214
6. “UK payrolled employees rose 102k in Jan, unemployment rate at 3.7% in Dec” Action Forex, 14 Feb. 2023, https://www.actionforex.com/featured/486249-uk-payrolled-employees-rose-102k-in-jan-unemployment-rate-at-3-7-in-dec/
7. “AUD/USD eyes monthly low ahead of Australia jobs report” Forex Factory, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1205859-audusd-eyes-monthly-low-ahead-of-australia-jobs
8. “Australian jobs report due soon – preview” ForexLive, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-jobs-report-due-soon-preview-20230215/