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China’s Manufacturing PMI Reaches 11-Year High: Will Bitcoin Follow Suit?

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The National Bureau of Statistics in China recently released data on industrial activity which showed an impressive increase in the official manufacturing PMI index to 52.6 in February. This was the highest number in almost 11 years, surpassing the 53.5 reading observed in April 2012.[0] The manufacturing PMI reading of 52.6 in February was higher than the expected 50.5, and the 50.1 reading the previous month.[1] The China Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was also higher than expected, at 51.6 in February compared to 49.2 the previous month.[2]

The good news had a positive impact on Chinese stocks, with the CSI 300 index up by 1.4%, the SSE up by 1%, and the Hang Seng Index up by more than 4%.[3] Analysts in the space are now speculating that Bitcoin, which is currently trading at $23,692.27, may follow suit.[1] Despite having a difficult year in 2022, Bitcoin is still up 42% from its all-time high of $69,044, which it reached in November 2021.

The correlation between Bitcoin and Chinese equities remains “uncorrelated,” according to a Kaiko report.[4] The CSI-Bitcoin correlation is still above zero, while the HSI and Bitcoin correlation is still negative.[4] On the other hand, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. equities has slightly improved with both the correlation curves of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 heading towards their December 2022 levels in the positive territory.[4]

The world’s largest economy continues to be the main influencer of Bitcoin, and the second-largest economy lacks the power to change that dynamic at the moment.[3] Therefore, for Bitcoin to keep advancing, a push from U.S. equities is likely necessary.[4]

0. “Bitcoin climbs to start new month as investors assess rate path” Markets Insider, 1 Mar. 2023, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-crypto-stocks-china-manufacturing-data-risk-assets-copper-2023-3

1. “Cryptos Rally As China’s Factory Rebound Improves Risk Appetite” RTTNews, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.rttnews.com/3347584/cryptos-rally-as-china-s-factory-rebound-improves-risk-appetite.aspx

2. “Bitcoin Price Jumps 2% Due To Bids From Asia, Here’s What’s Going On” NewsBTC, 27 Feb. 2023, https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-price-jumps-2-due-to-bids-from-asia/

3. “Analyzing Bitcoin’s On-going Correlation with ‘Bullish’ Chinese Stocks” Watcher Guru, 1 Mar. 2023, https://watcher.guru/news/analyzing-bitcoins-on-going-correlation-with-bullish-chinese-stocks

4. “Here’s How Bitcoin Is Correlated With Chinese Equities” TronWeekly, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.tronweekly.com/how-bitcoin-is-correlated-with-chinese-equities/

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