Market Watch: Treasury Yields Rise, Moderna Shares Drop, and Investors Await Inflation Report and Fed Meeting Minutes

Treasury yields have been rising, with the 10-year yield reaching 3.45% and the 2-year yield rising to 4.05%.[0] The 3-month T-bill rate has fallen slightly but remains high at 5.03%.[1] The severe 3-month to 10-year Treasury yield curve inversion signals the Fed’s unfinished inflation fight and growing recession risks.[1]

Moderna (MRNA) shares have dropped by more than 7% in pre-market trading after the company said that a final stage study of its RNA flu shot had not accumulated enough data to determine efficacy, and it will advance with another candidate.[2] Additionally, ADTRAN Holdings plunged more than 23% after it forecasted preliminary Q1 revenue that was below consensus.[2]

Investors are waiting for the closely-watched consumer price index report for March, due on Wednesday.[3] Economists predict a rise of 0.3% from February, while core CPI is expected to gain 0.4% sequentially.[4] The data will likely give the final impetus to market expectations around the Fed’s monetary policy direction.[4]

It is anticipated that the consumer price index on Wednesday will reveal a slight increase in inflation, with a projected 5.2% rise for the period ending in March. This comes after a 6.0% annual uptick observed in February, according to analysts.[5] Wednesday will also see the release of the meeting minutes of the Fed.[5]

Investors in the US stock market will be closely watching Wednesday’s inflation report to help gauge the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate move. They will also be closely watching the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the March meeting for further clues on the outlook for rates and policymakers’ views on the health of the US financial system.

The International Monetary Fund cut its 2023 global GDP forecast by 0.1 to 2.8% from a January forecast of 2.9% and cut its 2024 global GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.1%.[6]

CarMax (KMX) shares rose by over 7% after it reported Q4 EPS of 44 cents, more than double the consensus of 20 cents, and forecast 2024 capex of about $450 million, stronger than the consensus of $380.7 million.[5]

Meanwhile, crude oil resumed its rise, up 1.[5]

0. “Inflation Data Will Shatter the Stock Market Calm, Goldman Partner Warns” Yahoo Finance, 11 Apr. 2023,

1. “Market Fades, But These Stocks Flash Buy Signals” Investor’s Business Daily, 12 Apr. 2023,

2. “Stocks Settle Mixed Ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. Inflation News” Barchart, 11 Apr. 2023,

3. “Stocks Mixed as Higher Bond Yields Weigh on Tech” Barchart, 11 Apr. 2023,

4. “S&P, Dow set for three-day and four-day win streaks, respectively; Nasdaq slips” Seeking Alpha, 11 Apr. 2023,

5. “U.S. stocks are mixed as investors await inflation data, Fed minutes By”, 11 Apr. 2023,

6. “Focus on US CPI” FXStreet, 12 Apr. 2023,