Producer Prices Rebound; Initial Unemployment Claims Decline; Shopify (SHOP) Tumbles on Q1 Forecast

On Thursday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7% in January, seasonally adjusted.[0] This was a rebound from the previous month’s 0.2% decline and the largest advance since June 2022. Prices for final demand goods rose 1.2%, with a 5.0% increase in energy prices leading the way.[1] In addition, prices for final demand services increased 0.4%.[2] Excluding foods, energy, and trade services, the index for final demand rose 0.6%.[3]

The annual rate of the input Producer Price Index (PPI) has now been positive for 26 consecutive months. The annual rate of PPI input prices decreased to 14.1% in the 12 months ended January 2023, down from 16.2% in the year to December 2022. In the 12 months leading up to January 2023, producer output (factory gate) prices increased by 13.5%, a decrease from 14.6% in the year prior to December 2022.[4] The greatest decreases in the annual rates of input and output inflation were due to inputs of crude oil and petroleum products, respectively.[4] On a monthly basis, producer input prices decreased by 0.1%, and output prices increased by 0.5% in January 2023.[4]

Meanwhile, US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell 1,000 to 194,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 200,000.[5] In addition, US consumer prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in January, in line with economist estimates.[6]

Shopify (SHOP) tumbled more than 9% in pre-market trading after forecasting Q1 revenue growth in the high-teen percentages, weaker than the consensus of 20%.[5] Investors are likely to focus on speeches from Fed officials Mester and Bullard for further clues on the Fed’s rate hike path.[7] Core PPI rose 0.5% in January, and 5.4% from a year earlier.[6]

0. “US Producer Prices Exceed Forecast in Biggest Gain Since June” Bloomberg, 16 Feb. 2023,

1. “Producer Prices Rose 0.7% in January” Floor Focus, 16 Feb. 2023,

2. “US producer prices rise more quickly than expected in January” ShareCast, 16 Feb. 2023,–12367360.html

3. “Producer price index reacclerates in January” Seeking Alpha, 16 Feb. 2023,

4. “Producer price inflation, UK: January 2023” Forex Factory, 15 Feb. 2023,

5. “Markets Today: Stock Index Futures Tumble as U.S. Jan PPI Exceeds Forecasts” Barchart, 16 Feb. 2023,

6. “Producer Prices Rose, Pointing to Persistent Inflation” MarketWatch, 16 Feb. 2023,

7. “S&P Futures Tick Lower Ahead of Key U.S. PPI Data” Barchart, 16 Feb. 2023,