Demand Imbalance Arbitrage

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U.S. CPI Rise In-Line With Market Expectations, 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 3.78%, Major Indices Trade Lower


On February 9th, 2023, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% compared to the previous month, coming in-line with the market expectations.[0] The Consumer Price Index rose by 6.4% on an annual basis, and core prices (excluding food and energy) rose by 5.6% compared to the previous year.[1] The increase was more significant than the predicted 0.4% growth.[1]

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 3.76% Tuesday, rebounding from Monday’s losses. On Wednesday morning, the 10-year yield increased to 3.78% following the release of the retail sales numbers.[2] Despite the fact that initial claims came in higher than anticipated, at 196,000 as opposed to the expected 190,000, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note still increased by 3 basis points to 3.68%. The figure was higher than the 183,000 seen the previous week.[3] The inflation data being released caused Treasury yields to increase.[1]

Following the US CPI data released this morning, the major US indices are trading lower.[4] The S&P 500 (SPX) ended the week 1.1% lower, the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) dropped 2.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) remained relatively unchanged at -0.17%.[4] At 1240 GMT, the Dow Jones futures had dropped 0.12%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were expected to open 0.19% and 0.17% lower, respectively.[5] The 10-year Treasury saw a slight price increase, reducing yields to 3.73% from Friday’s 3.75%.

Oil prices dropped 2.6% to $78.09 and gold prices decreased 0.2% to $1,860.20 in the commodities market.[6] On Tuesday, the price of silver decreased by 0.5%, settling at $21.74, while copper increased by 0.1 Spot silver is trading down $0.10 or -0.47% to $21.86.

Investors are advised to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for them based on their personal circumstances.[7] High risk warnings are also in place for foreign exchange trading as it carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors.

0. “Dow Jumps Over 300 Points, Dollar Surges in Midday Trading” msnNOW, 13 Feb. 2023,

1. “S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow end choppy session with mixed performance after CPI data (SP500)” Seeking Alpha, 14 Feb. 2023,

2. “Futures Extend Losses On Strong Retail Sales; Tesla Rallies On Buy Rating” Investor’s Business Daily, 15 Feb. 2023,

3. “Dow Jones Falters; Microsoft Has Growing AI Waitlist” Investor’s Business Daily, 9 Feb. 2023,

4. “Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: Use Q1 rally to cut stocks exposure By”, 13 Feb. 2023,

5. “US pre-open: Futures in the red as investors await retail sales figures” ShareCast, 15 Feb. 2023,–12348712.html

6. “Dow Falls 150 Points; US Consumer Prices Rise 0.5% In January – Endava (NYSE:DAVA), Denny’s (NASDAQ:DENN)” Benzinga, 14 Feb. 2023,

7. “Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, US Dollar, AUD/USD, US CPI” DailyFX, 12 Feb. 2023,

Forecast Future Price Action
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