On Wednesday, February 15th, the US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales in the United States rose by 3% to $697 billion in January.[0] Following December’s 1.1% decrease, the reading came in better than the expected 1.8% increase, according to the market.[1] Retail Sales ex-Autos expanded by 2.3%, compared to analysts’ estimate of +0.8%.[2] The publication stated that the total sales for November 2022 to January 2023 had risen 6.1% compared to the same period in the previous year.[1]
The report showed that sales at bars and restaurants rose by 7.2%, the biggest monthly increase since March 2021, while auto sales were up 5.9%.[3] Department stores saw a 17.5% growth, food services and drinking places increased by 7.2%, and general merchandise store sales gained 4.5%.
The US consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in January, while the CPI increased by 6.4% from a year ago. The consumer-price index climbed 6.4% in January from a year earlier, down slightly from 6.5% in December.
The strong retail sales data, combined with the recent inflation numbers, suggests a robust consumer demand that could bolster the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising interest rates in the face of persistent inflation.[4] At present, markets anticipate that the Fed will approve quarter percentage point interest rate increases at its upcoming two gatherings, then take a break to analyze the effect of the fiscal policy decisions on inflation, the job market, and overall economic development.[5]
Oil prices continued to decline as the dollar rose and U.S. stockpiles increased.[6] On Wednesday morning, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, decreased by 1%, trading at approximately $78.[6]
Investors should note that forex trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors.[7] It is important to understand the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if any questions arise.[8]
0. “U.S. retail sales climb by 3.0% in January By Investing.com” Investing.com, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-retail-sales-climb-by-30-in-january-3004176
1. “Retail sales surge in January, smashing consensus” Seeking Alpha, 15 Feb. 2023, https://seekingalpha.com/news/3936303-retail-sales-surge-in-january-smashing-consensus
2. “US: Retail Sales rise by 3% in January vs. 1.8% expected” Forex Factory, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1205804-us-retail-sales-rise-by-3-in-january
3. “Stock Market Today: Stocks Close Up After Strong Retail Sales Data” Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/stock-market-today-021523-stocks-close-up-after-strong-retail-sales-data
4. “US Retail Sales Jump by Most in Nearly Two Years in Broad Gain” Bloomberg, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-15/us-retail-sales-jump-by-most-in-nearly-two-years-in-broad-gain
5. “Retail sales jump 3% in January, smashing expectations despite inflation increase” CNBC, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/retail-sales-january-2023-.html
6. “Stock market news today: Stocks rise after strong retail sales data” AOL, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.aol.com/stock-market-news-today-stock-130622831.html
7. “US Retail Sales Beat Expectations, US Dollar (DXY) Continues to Move Higher” DailyFX, 15 Feb. 2023, https://www.dailyfx.com/news/us-retail-sales-beat-expectations-us-dollar-dxy-continues-to-move-higher-20230215.html
8. “Why Wednesday’s US retail sales report could be stronger than expected” ForexLive, 14 Feb. 2023, https://www.forexlive.com/news/why-wednesdays-us-retail-sales-report-could-be-stronger-than-expected-20230214/