{"id":2600,"date":"2023-03-18T20:32:32","date_gmt":"2023-03-19T01:32:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/goldman-sachs-analysts-warn-of-us-recession-risk-market-on-edge-with-increasing-bank-stress\/"},"modified":"2023-03-18T20:32:33","modified_gmt":"2023-03-19T01:32:33","slug":"goldman-sachs-analysts-warn-of-us-recession-risk-market-on-edge-with-increasing-bank-stress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/goldman-sachs-analysts-warn-of-us-recession-risk-market-on-edge-with-increasing-bank-stress\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs Analysts Warn of US Recession Risk: Market on Edge With Increasing Bank Stress"},"content":{"rendered":"

On March 15, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists raised their estimates on the odds of a US recession to 35% over the next 12 months, citing increased near-term uncertainty around the economic effects of small bank stress.[0]<\/a><\/sup> This is despite economists surveyed by Bloomberg putting the odds of a recession at 60%.[0]<\/a><\/sup> JPMorgan economists noted that slower loan growth by mid-size banks could subtract a half to a full percentage-point off the level of GDP over the next year or two.[1]<\/a><\/sup> Goldman Sachs economists have predicted that tighter financial conditions could shave half a percentage point off US growth this year.[2]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

The market may be nearing its Lehman moment yet again, Art Cashin, the director of floor operations at UBS, said as a global banking crisis unfolds.[3]<\/a><\/sup> A feeling of panic spread to Credit Suisse, which experienced its stock dropping by 30% in one day after a major shareholder revealed they could not offer more monetary aid because of a regulatory boundary.[4]<\/a><\/sup> Cashin stated that the “game is afoot” as certain investors may attempt to “agitate things as much as possible” for their own monetary benefit.[4]<\/a><\/sup> At its meeting on Thursday, the European Central Bank is predicted to reduce the pace of rate increases.[2]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

In a client note, Goldman Sachs analysts revealed that they have lowered their 2023 GDP forecast due to a contraction in lending from small- and medium-sized banks.[5]<\/a><\/sup> To add to the market’s unease, First Republic Bank is exploring strategic options \u2014 including a sale, according to Bloomberg.[2]<\/a><\/sup> With the market on edge, the US continues to face an uphill battle against recession.<\/p>\n

0. <\/span>“Shrinking savings and rising debt leave consumers on shaky financial footing” NBC News, 18 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/economics\/shrinking-savings-rising-debt-leave-consumers-shaky-financial-footing-rcna75389<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

1. <\/span>“A recession could come sooner on cooling bank lending” CNBC, 15 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/03\/15\/a-recession-could-come-sooner-on-cooling-bank-lending-.html<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

2. <\/span>“Recession Fears Soar as Credit Suisse Woes Threaten Loan Crunch” Yahoo News, 16 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/recession-fears-soar-credit-suisse-062207564.html<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

3. <\/span>“The market is on the verge of a Lehman-style event as the financial world thrashes in the wake of global banki” Business Insider India, 17 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/www.businessinsider.in\/stock-market\/news\/the-market-is-on-the-verge-of-a-lehman-style-event-as-the-financial-world-thrashes-in-the-wake-of-global-banking-turmoil-veteran-trader-art-cashin-says\/articleshow\/98741749.cms<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

4. <\/span>“The market is on the verge of Lehman-style event amid banking turmoil” Markets Insider, 17 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/news\/stocks\/stock-market-outlook-ubs-svb-bank-crisis-lehman-art-cashin-2023-3<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

5. <\/span>“Odds of Recession Increase 10% After Bank Failures” Yahoo Entertainment, 16 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/entertainment\/odds-recession-increase-10-bank-155731909.html<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On March 15, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists raised their estimates on the odds of a US recession to 35% over the next 12 months, citing increased near-term uncertainty around the economic effects of small bank stress.[0]<\/a><\/sup> This is despite economists surveyed by Bloomberg putting the odds of a recession at 60%.[0]<\/a><\/sup> JPMorgan economists noted that slower loan growth by mid-size banks could subtract a half to a full percentage-point off the level of GDP over the next year or two.[1]<\/a><\/sup> Goldman Sachs economists have predicted that tighter financial conditions could shave half a percentage point off US growth this year.[2]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

The market may be nearing its Lehman moment yet again, Art Cashin, the director of floor operations at UBS, said as a global banking crisis unfolds.[3]<\/a><\/sup> A feeling of panic spread to Credit Suisse, which experienced its stock dropping by 30% in one day after a major shareholder revealed they could not offer more monetary aid because of a regulatory boundary.[4]<\/a><\/sup> Cashin stated that the “game is afoot” as certain investors may attempt to “agitate things as much as possible” for their own monetary benefit.[4]<\/a><\/sup> At its meeting on Thursday, the European Central Bank is predicted to reduce the pace of rate increases.[2]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

In a client note, Goldman Sachs analysts revealed that they have lowered their 2023 GDP forecast due to a contraction in lending from small- and medium-sized banks.[5]<\/a><\/sup> To add to the market’s unease, First Republic Bank is exploring strategic options \u2014 including a sale, according to Bloomberg.[2]<\/a><\/sup> With the market on edge, the US continues to face an uphill battle against recession.<\/p>\n

0. <\/span>“Shrinking savings and rising debt leave consumers on shaky financial footing” NBC News, 18 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/economics\/shrinking-savings-rising-debt-leave-consumers-shaky-financial-footing-rcna75389<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

1. <\/span>“A recession could come sooner on cooling bank lending” CNBC, 15 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/03\/15\/a-recession-could-come-sooner-on-cooling-bank-lending-.html<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

2. <\/span>“Recession Fears Soar as Credit Suisse Woes Threaten Loan Crunch” Yahoo News, 16 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/recession-fears-soar-credit-suisse-062207564.html<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

3. <\/span>“The market is on the verge of a Lehman-style event as the financial world thrashes in the wake of global banki” Business Insider India, 17 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/www.businessinsider.in\/stock-market\/news\/the-market-is-on-the-verge-of-a-lehman-style-event-as-the-financial-world-thrashes-in-the-wake-of-global-banking-turmoil-veteran-trader-art-cashin-says\/articleshow\/98741749.cms<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

4. <\/span>“The market is on the verge of Lehman-style event amid banking turmoil” Markets Insider, 17 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/news\/stocks\/stock-market-outlook-ubs-svb-bank-crisis-lehman-art-cashin-2023-3<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n

5. <\/span>“Odds of Recession Increase 10% After Bank Failures” Yahoo Entertainment, 16 Mar. 2023, https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/entertainment\/odds-recession-increase-10-bank-155731909.html<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2599,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2600"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2600\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2599"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/embarrdowns.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}