China’s manufacturing sector is leading the global economic recovery, with the latest data showing that activity has expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade.[0] The IHS Markit reported the Caixin Manufacturing PMI data at 51.6, higher than the expectations of 50.2 and the former release of 49.2 two months ago.[1] The official NBS Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6 compared to 50.5 market forecasts and 50.1 prior.[2] Similarly, Non-Manufacturing PMI rallied to 56.3 versus analysts’ expectations of 49.7 and 54.4 previous readings.[3]
This surge in manufacturing activity is a result of the rollback of strict lockdown measures in China.[4] The Chinese administration and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) are dedicated to spurring economic recovery by improving domestic demand.[5] However, this could also be linked to inflation in Europe, as figures released on Tuesday showed accelerating inflation in France and Spain, two of the euro zone’s biggest economies.[6] This has pushed up expectations for rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB).[6]
The U.S. stocks started March lower following a rough February, as bond yields rose and data showed that factory activity contracted for the fourth straight month. Data from the United States indicated that input prices rose in the manufacturing industry during February, boosting the demand for the US Dollar.[7] Wednesday morning, U.S. stocks began March by dropping due to the contrasting outcomes of significant manufacturing data and two Federal Reserve officials implying that the upcoming months could witness a more intense rate-hiking initiative.
The Eurozone’s final manufacturing PMI for February, which is closer to home, was reported to be 48.5, which is the same as the initial estimate.[8] Data released separately indicated that Germany’s unemployment rate stayed steady at a low level during February.[9] On Tuesday, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, spoke publicly for the first time since his appointment last month. He warned that it would be unwise for policy makers to rely too much on market reactions, and emphasized the need to “complement traditional data with observations of the actual economy.”[4]
Overall, the market snapshot currently shows that at 03:45 ET (08:45 GMT), the DAX index in Germany traded 0.2% higher, the CAC 40 in France climbed 0.3% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. rose 0.4%.[9]
0. “Benchmark Treasury yields approach 4% as China’s economic rebound adds to inflationary pressures” msnNOW, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/benchmark-treasury-yields-approach-4percent-as-chinas-economic-rebound-adds-to-inflationary-pressures/ar-AA185bem
1. “China Data Lifts Sentiment, Dollar in Retreat” Action Forex, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/market-overview/488702-china-data-lifts-sentiment-dollar-in-retreat/
2. “ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: China’s NBS February PMIs leap higher” ForexLive, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-asia-pacific-fx-news-wrap-chinas-nbs-february-pmis-leap-higher-20230301/
3. “S&P Futures Tick Higher As China Recovery Overshadow Rate Hike Worries” Barchart, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.barchart.com/story/news/14660037/s-p-futures-tick-higher-as-china-recovery-overshadow-rate-hike-worries
4. “Stock market news today: Stocks fall, manufacturing data on tap” Yahoo News, 1 Mar. 2023, https://news.yahoo.com/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-1-2023-124448484.html
5. “AUD/USD extends V-shape recovery to 0.6760 as upbeat Caixin PMI outweighs Aussie CPI” FXStreet, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-extends-v-shape-recovery-to-06760-as-upbeat-caixin-pmi-outweighs-aussie-cpi-202303010609
6. “Dollar slides, yuan gains on China PMI; inflation data lifts euro” CNBC, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/dollar-advances-aussie-slides-as-australia-economy-slows.html
7. “USD Index to trade well within Monday’s range of 104.55-105.35 – ING” FXStreet, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-index-to-trade-well-within-mondays-range-of-10455-10535-ing-202303010820
8. “Doubt Chinese Data, But Its Stronger-Than-Expected PMI Lifts Risk Assets” Seeking Alpha, 1 Mar. 2023, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4583291-chinese-data-stronger-than-expected-pmi-lifts-risk-assets
9. “European Shares Gain On China Optimism” RTTNews, 1 Mar. 2023, https://www.rttnews.com/3347426/european-shares-gain-on-china-optimism.aspx