Investors are hopeful that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes could come to an end since inflation is moderating. Since the beginning of 2022, the Federal Reserve has increased the federal-funds rate from 0% to its current target range of 4.5%-4.75%.[0] Futures markets in the bond market are indicating that the Federal Reserve is likely to increase interest rates by an additional 0.5% by the month of May.[1] After experiencing their worst performance since 2008 in 2022, major stock indexes have started off strong in the new year.
Since mid-2022, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate campaign has enabled inflation to be moderated.[2] This has generated some investor confidence that the Federal Reserve System of the United States may cease increasing interest rates, or possibly even begin to reduce them this year. When interest rates are reduced, investors become more inclined to purchase assets that are considered to be of higher risk, such as growth stocks, as the cost of borrowing is cheaper.[2]
The US stock market has gotten off to a strong start in 2023 following a dreary bear market last year. The major indices had been printing a succession of lower lows until they changed direction, forming a pattern of higher lows and higher highs.[3] It looks like we may be in for a shift in the overall trend, and it will be interesting to see if the buying momentum carries on in the upcoming weeks and months.[3]
Last week, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes experienced their largest five-day losses since mid-December, dropping 2.14% and 1.11%, respectively.[4] The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.17%.[4] The five-week advance of the Nasdaq came to an end and the S&P 500’s year-to-date gains were reduced to approximately 7%.[2]
As investors prepare for Tuesday’s inflation announcement, expected to show a 0.5% month-on-month increase for the first time in three months, the stock market has become increasingly volatile.[2] Last week, a strong January jobs report and hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have diminished expectations that the Fed would relax its firm monetary policy, likely resulting in the decrease of stocks.[2]
Many market analysts have been taken aback by the significant surge in the main indices since the start of the year, particularly since the Federal Reserve has just implemented another rate increase to battle persistent inflation.[5]
Tech stocks are once again gaining investor favor, with Tesla leading the way at a 68.3% increase.[6] Nvidia has gained 52.9% and Warner Bros.[7]
0. “5 Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy Despite Dow’s Sluggish Start in 2023” Yahoo Life, 14 Feb. 2023, https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/5-blue-chip-stocks-buy-131001450.html
1. “3 Stock Strategists and 3 Scenarios for the Stock Market in 2023” Morningstar, 9 Feb. 2023, https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1136581/3-stock-strategists-and-3-scenarios-for-the-stock-market-in-2023
2. “The stock market rally of 2023 is losing steam – the Nasdaq and S&P 500 just notched their worst weekly runs in nearly …” msnNOW, 13 Feb. 2023, https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-stock-market-rally-of-2023-is-losing-steam-the-nasdaq-and-sandp-500-just-notched-their-worst-weekly-runs-in-nearly-2-months/ar-AA17qSbS
3. “Why 2023 Will Be the Year of the Stock Picker” Zacks Investment Research, 13 Feb. 2023, https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2053502/why-2023-will-be-the-year-of-the-stock-picker
4. “The stock market rally of 2023 is losing steam – the Nasdaq and S&P 500 just notched their worst weekly runs i” Business Insider India, 13 Feb. 2023, https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/the-stock-market-rally-of-2023-is-losing-steam-the-nasdaq-and-sp-500-just-notched-their-worst-weekly-runs-in-nearly-2-months/articleshow/97882186.cms
5. “Current stock market rally ‘likely to mark the high point’ for 2023: JPMorgan” msnNOW, 13 Feb. 2023, https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/current-stock-market-rally-likely-to-mark-the-high-point-for-2023-jpmorgan/ar-AA17q9lu
6. “The stock market rally of 2023 has surprised even Wall Street veterans. Here are the 10 best-performers on the” Business Insider India, 10 Feb. 2023, https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/the-stock-market-rally-of-2023-has-surprised-even-wall-street-veterans-here-are-the-10-best-performers-on-the-sp-500-and-what-could-be-driving-them-/articleshow/97804900.cms
7. “10 best-performing stocks on the S&P 500 and what could be driving them” Markets Insider, 10 Feb. 2023, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-best-performers-sp500-us-rally-drive-surprise-gains-2023-2