US Inflation & India Retail Inflation Mark Rise in January 2023

On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – a closely watched measure of inflation which tracks fluctuations in the costs of everyday goods and services – rose 6.4% compared to the same month one year ago.[0] The January reading marked the seventh straight month of cooling in annual inflation since peaking at 9.1% in June, the highest reading since 1981.[1] Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, increased at an annual rate of 5.6%.[2] Annually, both overall and core inflation rose at their lowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2021.[0]

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has aggressively raised borrowing costs from near-zero to a target range of between 4.5% to 4.75% in less than a year, as the central bank aims to bring down soaring prices.[3] At its last policy meeting, the Fed revealed a minor 25-basis-point rate increase. Nevertheless, Fed chair Jerome Powell cautioned that rates could need to remain higher for an extended period of time due to data exhibiting a strong labor market.[3]

[4] Inflation rose by 0.5% month-to-month, ending a three-month period of improvement after the December reading revealed the most significant decrease since April 2020, when the pandemic was at its most disconcerting.[5]

Meanwhile, India’s retail inflation shot back up to 6.52% in January after a two-month streak below the 6% mark, with consumer food prices hardening again to 5.94% from 4.2% in December 2022. In January, the retail sector in the country experienced an inflation rate of 6.52%, the highest since October 2022 (6.77%).

The January 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations conducted by the New York Federal Reserve revealed that the median expected inflation rate for the next twelve months remained at 5%.[6] In three years, Americans anticipate that inflation will be 2.7%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than today. Five years into the future, inflation is expected to be 2.5%, a 0.1 percentage point increase.[6]

The Federal Reserve considers the core rate to be a better indication of future inflation movements.[7] According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report, rising shelter costs constituted approximately half of the rise in monthly costs.[8] [7]

0. “Inflation surged 6.4% in January, higher than expected” New York Post , 14 Feb. 2023,

1. “January CPI Report Shows Annual Inflation Cooled” The Wall Street Journal, 14 Feb. 2023,

2. “Inflation fell to 6.4% in January, hotter than expected” Washington Examiner, 14 Feb. 2023,

3. “Monthly U.S. inflation accelerates in January, annual figure 6.4% By”, 14 Feb. 2023,

4. “CPI Inflation Comes In Hot, Keeping Fed On Guard” Investor’s Business Daily, 14 Feb. 2023,

5. “Inflation Fell To 6.4% In January—But Is Still Worse Than Economists Expected As Rent, Food And Gas Prices Keep Rising” Forbes, 14 Feb. 2023,

6. “Live updates: Stocks rise as annual inflation keeps falling” CNN, 14 Feb. 2023,

7. “CPI shows U.S. inflation still sticky” MarketWatch, 14 Feb. 2023,

8. “Consumer price index January 2023:” CNBC, 14 Feb. 2023,